Market transition dynamics and export forecasting of India's marine products: a phase-wise analysis using Markov Chain and ARIMA models
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17017/j.fish.1354Keywords:
ARIMA forecasting, export growth, export instability, marine product exports, Markov Chain analysis, market transition dynamicsAbstract
India is one of the world's leading exporters of marine products, contributing substantially to foreign exchange earnings, employment, and coastal livelihoods. Understanding long-term export growth, market transitions, and future trade prospects is essential for strengthening export competitiveness and policy planning. This study analysed India's marine product exports using secondary data from 2005–2006 to 2024–2025 covering eight product groups (frozen shrimp, frozen fish, frozen cuttlefish, frozen squid, dried items, live items, chilled items, and others) and seven major export markets. Export growth, instability, market concentration, market transition, and future export trends were evaluated using Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), Cuddy–Della Valle Instability Index (CDVI), Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI), Markov Chain analysis, and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, respectively. The results indicated that frozen shrimp remained the dominant export commodity, while China recorded the highest growth with comparatively high instability. Markov Chain analysis revealed a structural shift in export market retention, with the United States of America (USA) emerging as the most stable destination during the later period. ARIMA forecasts indicated a gradual decline in export values across most product categories through 2035 under existing trends. The findings suggest the need for export diversification, value addition, and market expansion to enhance the long-term resilience and competitiveness of India's marine products sector
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Data Availability Statement
The data supporting the findings of this study are available within the article. The secondary data used in this study were obtained from the published export statistics of the Marine Products Export Development Authority (MPEDA), Government of India, and are publicly available through the official MPEDA website [https://www.mpeda.gov.in].
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